PIRELLI - Guidance senza sorprese, mercato deluso

Fatto

Pirelli ha riportato ieri a mercati aperti i suoi risultati del 4Q 2023.

•    Revenue at €1,490mn (-6% YoY), vs our/cons. est. at €1,484/ 1,470mn, +0%/ +1%;
o    Volume at +2% vs +1% exp.
o    Price/mix at +3% vs +3% exp.
o    FX at -11% vs -10%

•    Adj. EBITDA at €330mn (+0% YoY), vs our/cons. est. at €326/ 333mn, +1%/ -1%;

•    Adj. EBIT at €219mn (-2% YoY, FY margin 15.1%), vs our/cons. €214/ 209mn, +2%/ +5%;

•    Net cash flow at €877mn (FY: €509mn), vs our/cons est. at €834/ 833mn;

•    Net financial position at €2,262mn, vs our/cons. at €2,305/ 2,294mn;

•    DPS at €0.198 vs our €0.189.
 

2024 outlook:
•    Revenue at ~€6,700mn (€±100mn), vs our/cons. est. at €6,746/ 6,767mn, -1%/ -1%;
o    Volume at +2% vs our +0%
o    Price&mix at +2% vs our +3%
o    FX at -4% vs our -2%

•    Adj. EBIT margin at ~15.0-15.5%, vs our/cons est. at 15.4%/ 15.3%;

•    Adj. EBIT at €~1,022mn (±€32mn), vs our/cons. est. at €1,038/ 1,038mn;

•    Net cash flow at €~510mn (±€10mn), vs our/cons. est. at €507/ 517mn;

•    Net debt at €~1,950mn, vs our/cons. est. at €1,987/ 1,983mn.
2025 outlook:

•    Revenue at €6,900mn (€±100mn), vs our/cons. est. at €6,951/ 7,002mn, -1%/ -1%

•    Adj. EBIT margin at ~16.0%, vs our/cons. at 15.7%/ 15.9%

•    Adj. EBIT at €~1,104mn (€±16mn), vs our/cons. est. at €1,089/ 1,116mn, +1%/ -1%

•    Net cash flow at €~560mn (€±10mn), vs our/cons. est. at €569/ 545mn, -2%/ +3%

•    Net debt at €~1,600mn, vs our/cons. at €1,616/ 1,661mn
Spunti dalla call:

•    Target assumono un po’ di cautela lato FX (debolezza $ e volatilità valute EM)

•    Priorità il deleverage a 1x nel 2025, incluso payout del 50% su utili 2024 (40% in prec.)

•    M&A vista possibile per operazioni bolt-on nel campo dei materiali (non si vede la necessità di una combinazione con produttori di parti per auto)

•    Fiducia in risultato positivo da indagine anti-trust

•    Cyber-tyre potrà contribuire nel prossimo piano industriale (dal ‘26 in avanti)
 

Effetto