Iveco - Trimestrale sotto le attese, guidance 2025 abbassata

Fatto

3Q25 results highlights

•    Group revenues at 3,408 (-1% YoY), vs our/cons. at 3,351/ 3,366, +2%/ +1%
o    Truck at 2,008 (-11% YoY), vs our/cons. at 2,108/ 2,028, -5%/ -1%
o    Bus at 719 (+31% YoY), vs our/cons. at 629/ 684, +14%/ +5%
o    Defence at 293 (+11% YoY), vs our/cons. at 309/ 318, -5%/ -8%
o    Powertrain (net) at 317 (+9% YoY), vs our at 231/ 219, +37%/ +45%
o    Financial services at 71 (-22% YoY), vs our/cons. at 75/ 117, -5% / -39%
•    Adj. EBIT at 136 (-34% YoY), vs our/cons. at 190/ 193, -29%/ -30%
•    Adj. EBIT margin at 4.0% vs our/cons. at 5.7%/ 5.7%
o    Truck at 59, vs our/cons. 101/ 81
o    Bus at 29, vs our/cons. 33/ 38
o    Defence at 25, vs 2.9% vs our/cons. 36/ 38
o    Powertrain (net) at -12, vs our/cons. -14/ 5
o    Financial services at 35, vs our/cons. 35/ 31
•    Adj. net profit at 54 (-49% YoY), vs our/cons. at 99/ 111, -45%/ -51%
•    Ind. FCF at -553, vs our/cons. at -322/ -427, +72%/ +30%
•    Net cash at 524, vs our/cons. at 787/ 1,032, -33%/ +7%

2025 guidance (comment vs mid-point). LOWERED

•    Industrial sales at €14.35bn (-4% YoY) vs prev. €14.35bn, vs our/Cons. at €14.5/ 14.7
•    Adj. EBIT cons. €855mn (€± 50mn) vs prev. €930mn, vs our/Cons. €900/ 890mn, -5%/ -4%
•    Adj. EBIT ind. €725mn (€± 50mn) vs prev. €800mn, vs our/Cons. €764/786mn, -5%/ -8%
•    FCF at €300mn (€± 25mn) vs prev. €375mn, vs our/Cons. at €381/ 326mn, -21%/ -8%

 Other items:

•    Vendita del segmento Defence e Tender Offer di Tata Motors procedendo in linea con tempistiche previste
•    Book-to-bill (prev. is 2Q)
o    Trucks at 1.00x vs prev. 0.87x
o    o/w LCV at 1.04x vs prev. 0.87x
o    o/w M&H at 0.91x vs prev. 0.87x
o    Bus at 0.77x vs prev. 1.08x
•    2025 EU Market outlook
o    LCVs at 620k (low) vs prev. 670k
o    Medium Duty at 26k, (low) vs prev. 30k
o    Heavy Duty at 280-290k (conf) vs prev. 280-290k

Effetto