Iveco Group - Risultati deboli e sotto le attese

Fatto

Iveco crolla in ribasso di oltre il -6% a valle dei risultati.

Di seguito i risultati di IVG 1Q25, pubblicati oggi prima dell’apertura: 
•    Group revenues at €3,026mn (-10% YoY), vs our/cons. at 3,148/ 3,192, -5%/ -12%
o    Truck at 1,961 (-16% YoY), vs our/cons. at 2,134/ 2,091, -8%/ -6%
o    Bus at 478 (+15% YoY), vs our/cons. at 455/ 495, +5%/ -3%
o    Defence at 278 (+31% YoY), vs our/cons. at 236/ 230, +18%/ +21%
o    Net powertrain at 241 (-24% YoY), vs our at 238/ 286, +1%/ -16%
o    Net financial at 68 (-19% YoY), vs our/cons. at 84/ 90, -19% / -24%
•    Adj. EBIT at 152 (-35% YoY), vs our/cons. at 181/ 172, -16%/ -12%
•    Adj. EBIT margin at 5.0% vs our/cons. at 5.8%/ 5.4%
o    Truck at 58, vs our/cons. 96/ 84
o    Bus at 26, vs our/cons. 29/ 29
o    Defence at 36, vs 3.0% vs our/cons. 27/ 25
o    Net powertrain at -3, vs our/cons. -2/ 2
o    Net financial at 35, vs our/cons. 31/ 32
•    Adj. net profit at 84 (-47% YoY), vs our/cons. at 89/ 87, -5%/ -3%
•    Ind. FCF at -794, vs our/cons. at -468/ -570, +70%/ +39%
•    Net cash at 1,102, vs our/cons. at 1,382/ 1,452, -20%/ -24%
 
2025 guidance:
•    Industrial sales at €15.0bn (+0% YoY), vs our/Cons. at €14.5/ 14.7, +1%/ +1%;
•    Adj. EBIT consolidated at €1,005mn (€± 25mn), vs our/Cons. at €973/ 982mn;
•    Adj. EBIT industrial at €875mn (€± 25mn) margin of 5.9%, vs our/Cons. at €854/ 853mn, +2%/ +3%;
•    Free Cash Flow at €425mn (€± 25mn) vs our/Cons. at €432/ 420mn, +1%/ +8%.

Other items:
•    Separazione della divisione Defence IDV confermata
o    In corso il processo di spin-off, con valutazione di manifestazioni di interesse preliminari da parte di potenziali acquirenti strategici
•    Book-to-bill
o    Trucks at 1.19x vs prev. 0.69x
o    o/w LCV at 1.13x vs prev. 0.60x
o    o/w M&H at 1.29x vs prev. 0.89x
o    Bus at 1.41x vs prev. 0.87x prev.
•    2025 EU Market outlook
o    LCVs (confirmed) at 670k, -5% to flat YoY
o    Medium Duty (confirmed) at 30k, -6% YoY
o    Heavy Duty at 280-290k (confirmed), down -5/-10% YoY
 

Effetto