IVECO - Conferma la guidance sul 2024, book to bill in miglioramento

Fatto

3Q 2024 results highlights di Iveco:

•    Group revenues at €3,446mn (-7% YoY), vs our/cons. at 3,389/ 3,370, +2%/ +1%
•    Truck at 2,253 (-12% YoY), vs our/cons. at 2,271/ 2,203, -1%/ +2%
•    Bus at 547 (+17% YoY), vs our/cons. at 508/ 567, +8%/ -4%
•    Defence at 264 (+33% YoY), vs our/cons. at 237/ 236, +11%/ +12%
•    Net powertrain at 291 (-29% YoY), vs our at 283/ 264, +3%/ +10%
•    Net financial at 91 (+5% YoY), vs our/cons. at 90/ 100, +1% / -9%
•    Adj. EBIT at 206 (-8% YoY), vs our/cons. at 186/ 204, +11%/ +1%
•    Adj. EBIT margin at 6.0% vs our/cons. at 5.5%/ 6.1%
•    Truck at 121, vs our/cons. 120/ 125
•    Bus at 28, vs our/cons. 27/ 30
•    Defence at 23, vs 5.4% vs our/cons. 21/ 21
•    Net powertrain at -5, vs our/cons. -14/ -3
•    Net financial at 39, vs our/cons. 31/ 31
•    Adj. net profit at 104 (+20% YoY), vs our/cons. at 57/ 75, +83%/ +39%
•    Ind. FCF at -286, vs our/cons. at -355/ -336, -19%/ -15%
•    Net cash at 767, vs our/cons. at 688/ 665, +11%/ +15%

2024 guidance:

•    Industrial sales at €15.0bn (-4% YoY), vs our/Cons. at €14.5/ 14.7, +4%/ +2%;
•    Adj. EBIT consolidated at €945mn (€± 25mn), vs our/Cons. at €924/ 968mn;
•    Adj. EBIT industrial at €815mn (€± 25mn) margin of 5.4%, vs our/Cons. at €800/ 847mn, +2%/ -4%;
•    Free Cash Flow at €375mn (€± 25mn) vs our/Cons. at €340/ 326mn, +1%/ +8%.

Other items:

•    Accelerazione nell’implementazione dell’Efficiency Program nel 2025 con una riduzione della spesa totale (CapEx + OpEx)
•    Continui sforzi per ottimizzazione NWC
•    Feedback positivi dalle consegne di MY24, attese di slancio nella presa ordini nel 4Q

Book-to-bill
•    Trucks at 0.75x vs prev.0.66x
•    o/w LCV at 0.68x vs prev. 0.64x
•    o/w M&H at 0.90x vs prev. 0.90x
•    Bus at 1.12x vs prev. 0.98x prev. (order book covers production well into 2026)
Inventories

•    LCV in line with last year
•    M&H down vs last year

Order backlog
•    LCV at 11w vs prev. 13w
•    M&H at 9w vs prev. 10w

Market outlook
•    EU Seen at 280-290k in 2025, vs 300 in 2024. In line with peers
 

Effetto